Y.S. RANA , HAMIRPUR (HP) : Though the soil of Himachal Pradesh does not allow growth of third front yet manure of social engineering put in by the Bhahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is ready to reap the crop from election field. Despite defeat in its stronghold Uttar Pradesh, BSP keeps its feet on the ground and ear close to rustic rumblings and urban disquiet. Gains in weight of elephant will be the power loss to the hand. The Congress’ abysmal performance in Himachal Pradesh in the last assembly elections and subsequent developments on political arena, the BSP put its feet in Congress’ boots.
Still in its infancy, in the state BSP has made fight triangular or four-corner on around 30 seats especially in the lower area of the state. In 2007 assembly election it had contested 67 seats and for the first time won a seat from district Kangra. It has also polled 7.26 per cent votes; Congress 38.9 per cent; BJP 43.78 per cent; CPM 0.19 per cent and Independent 7.97 per cent. The party does make no tall claims here this time also but ready to stamp its punch. In 2009 Hamirpur Parliamentary byelection, its nominee Mangat Ram secured 11,774 votes.
So going by the statistics of pre election predictions, there may be decrease in Congress’ vote bank. The mantra that propelled BSP’s juggernaut was: “Long live Ambedkar and down with Mandal,” instantly drew SCs and ‘forward castes’ together from different ends. Ambedkarism appealed to the Dalits and BSP’s sotto voce distancing from Mandal pleased the upper castes.
While everybody else was playing to the gallery of mathematics, BSP sought out a caste chemistry that defied traditional logic. It has done a lot more than just turn the ancient Congress pyramid upside down. It was this deadly scissors movement, which combined ‘forwards’ and SCs in the state, that cut OBC supporters down to size. The political storm warnings are clear enough. The Congress is ceding ground may be falling into a chasm. The BSP has succeeded in bringing Dalit politics back to basics gave them a sense of confidence
On the other, Virbhadra Singh is still not sure that if Congress won he would be the chief minister. Denial of ticket to his wife and rejoining of Major Vijay Singh Mankotia, his arch political foe, gave weight to his suspicion. All in all the Congress is in a place few expected a year ago. The 2012 campaign, it seems, will be waged on the basis of personality not political philosophy. If the magic works all will be forgiven. But if it does not the recriminations could tear the party apart.
The congress is counting its election chickens before its primary eggs are hatched. It still finds itself grappling with a demon it had promised to slay. Not only inflation gone away, corruption has hurt more than any other issue made all candidates to aware of its sting.