By SHABNUM SHAH : National Assembly of Pakistan is due to complete its tenure on March 16, 2013. With the end of current National Assembly of Pakistan approaching fast, all the decisions, activities, debates and statements have acquired election overtones. As the popular belief goes, the present government will be dissolved before March 16, 2013 and a caretaker government will be put into place as per the recommendations of the major political parties. The efforts are also on to enter into some kind of truce with Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The incumbent coalition between PPP and PML-N are having major confrontations with the Army, Judiciary or other constitutional bodies. In mid-January, 2011, it had a major confrontation with the Army and the Supreme Court on number of issues with the major focus being on the scandal termed as “Memogate”. The confrontation brought the government to the brink of its fall and there were widespread speculations about early polls. The repeat of the military coup was also on the cards. The face off carried forth till the middle of the year with Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf indicating polls in November, months ahead of schedule. Under the circumstances, the governments only agenda was to remain afloat. To that extent, completion of its full term by the incumbent government for the first time in the history of Pakistan as an independent nation is a marvellous achievement. This is a vital landmark in the annals of Pakistan government. To continue feeling good for some more time, let us assume that the democracy will remain salvaged and elections will be conducted in a free and fair manner.
As the elections approach, direct attack by various stakeholders and institutions as well as those sponsored by them are getting intensified. Even the non-issues are being blown out of proportion and players like Qadri are being fielded by the Army to promote the cause of establishing favourable regime. PPP, which has been on shaky grounds ever since it formed the government, is further getting isolated. The coalition partners such as Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and the Pakistan Muslim league-Q (PML-Q) have been distancing themselves from PPP and as the elections approach, the divide is only going to further widen and become more acrimonious. The only straw that the PPP holds on to is the hatred that PML–Q has for the PML- N which creates for it a scenario of an enemy’s enemy being your friend however unpalatable. Religious pressure groups are also likely to play more important role inciting people on anti-India, anti-US and anti – PPP agendas. Alliance of religious players ‘Defence of Pakistan Council’ and Imran Khan’s Party Tehrik-e-Insaf are likely to be propelled forward with active support of Army and blessings of Judiciary. The popular agenda of opposing US drone attacks is likely to rock the boats of the mainstream political parties and the coming days are also likely to see splits, defections and cross party induction of Politicians.
Damocles sword hangs on the neck of democracy. Will democracy survive in Pakistan? If it survives, what will be its shape, content and face after next elections? Will there be political stability in Pakistan? How new combination is going to play in Pakistan and Kashmiri? The answer to most of these questions will be visible once events timely conduct of elections and the role that Army plays during the pre-election period, unfold in Pakistan. However, the bigger concern with regard to future of Pakistan relates to the people of Pakistan. Will the people be able to force the polity to generate the moral courage to declare that religion can not be the basis for creating a nation-state. This is amply proved by the number of sectarian clashes that are taking place, resulting into mass killing of Shias. Muslims in general and Shias in particular feel safer in India than in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Beyond the threat to lives, religion can also not be allowed to exploit those honest and hardworking Pakistanis who are only seeking a square meal, some security to life, a decent education for children and some hope of light at the end of the tunnel.
It came be safely surmised that democracy in Pakistan can take firm roots and flourish only if the nation sheds its sectarian and fundamentalist mindset. While discussing the ideology of Pakistan a famous writer Vaqar Ahmed has had the courage to say that in order to progress, the nation must generate the moral courage to declare that religion cannot be the basis for creating a nation-state. He feels that religion cannot be used to exploit those honest, hardworking Pakistanis who are only seeking a square meal, some security of life and property, a decent education, healthcare and a little hope for the future. Literally speaking, this should be the writing on the wall for the leaders of Pakistan but how far they can walk this path is a different matter altogether.
It suits the various dispensations in Pakistan to project that the turmoil is Pakistan is creation of India. It is not so. From the efforts that India is making to help stabilisation of democracy and economy in Pakistan, even a layman can make out that it neither serves India nor India wishes to exploit the trouble-torn Pakistan. It is simply the result of the internal contradictions that beset the political landscape of the country. Being an internal issue it can be resolved only internally; what is required is a will to usher change. The examples of Myanmar and Bangladesh are there for all to see, whether they are understood and imbibed is the big question. The bottom line is that Pakistan must stop being its own enemy. While, Pakistan works for a better future, it can not become a source of insecurity to its neighbours. Granting control of Gwadar port is one such example.
Military activism along the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir; ceasefire violations and attempts to support infiltration are the other issues that are likely to stand on the way of improving relations. India was in talks with both Pakistan and Bangladesh with regard to a liberal visa regime; while the process is already in place with Bangladesh with institution of simplified visa procedures for senior citizens, students, businessmen, medical patients and to promote tourism, not much progress has been made with Pakistan. It is quite evident that for India there is no other option but to wait and watch while hoping for good sense to prevail.